Lesson+4+Jennifer

**__ Media Literacy in the 21st Century Lesson #4 __** Why do we need to know how to interpret data? This two part lesson focuses on the importance of students learning how to recognize distorted statistics and probability values in the media.

Part One: //**Misleading Statistics**//

Introduce this section by having students read the quote and watch the video below. These items could be placed in a course management system such as Moodle and students could participate in an online discussion forum (Conversation Mindtool) about their impressions of what they have read and seen.

"From 4 out of 5 dentists to 50% chance to 99% accurate, inaccurate statistics are produced and regurgitated at an alarming level every day. Even worse, they are usually accepted by the general public without a second thought. The key to gaining control over statistics is to understand what statistics can and cannot do for you, and learning to look for the loophole that allows an untruth to exist or even flourish. For example, the prevailing thought among Americans is that the normal (i.e. average) body temperature is 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit, when it is actually 98.2 (Paulos 139). The original scientist conducted his research in degrees Celsius and sensibly rounded his results to 37 degrees. This rounding was forgotten when converted to Fahrenheit and we have been left with our inaccurate average ever since. Many times, misleading statistics can be used to urge the reader towards a certain viewpoint or emotional response. One such example, the claim that 1 in 8 women will develop breast cancer is true but quite misleading. Only 1 out of every 2500 women will contract the disease by the age of 30, only 1 out of every 50 women by the age of 50, and only 1 out of every 9 women by the age of 85 (Paulos 138). Most women do not even live to the age of 85, and while 1 in 2500 is too many women to have to live with this disease, the actual mortality rate is a fraction of these numbers." //Quote above taken from [|Exploring the Information around You] by Jonathan Eyles, Hamilton Middle School

media type="youtube" key="mm2IeJLJzwE" height="344" width="425"//

Next, have students complete the following assignment taken from [|SAS Curriculum Pathways] (Classroom Activity 1050 Copyright © 2009, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA, All Rights Reserved SAS® Curriculum Pathways® ). The activity has been altered slightly from its original form to add the use of search engines for research and possible suggestions for the use additional technology tools. Approximately 2 to 3 class periods will be needed to complete the entire activity.

Statistics in the News: What to Believe?

 * Search for and read examples of polls and surveys found on the Internet (Interpretation Mindtool).
 * Develop skills in critically reading statistical studies and findings.
 * Create mock poll or survey results so other students can locate biases, sampling problems, and general design issues.

**What you will do**

 * Analyze surveys for biases and questionable data-collection methodologies
 * Determine problems, unrelated to data collection, which may affect the results or interpretation
 * Invent a hypothetical study

**What you will need**
Survey, polling, or research articles, internet access

**The steps to follow**

 * 1) Use Internet search engines to locate and read articles on current research (e.g., polls, surveys, etc.).
 * 2) In small groups, designated by your teacher, discuss any flaws in data collection, such as biases or sampling problems. Discuss whether there is enough information in the article to adequately inform the reader, and note any concerns about the research findings (e.g., generalizing results). As groups brainstorm their thoughts, they can use a [|graphic organizer] to keep up with their ideas (Semantic Mindtool).
 * 3) Discuss your findings with the class. Online discussion forums may be used.
 * 4) Working with your group members, create a news release of some hypothetical research findings. It should include good and flawed data-collection methods and can be created using wordprocessing or desktop publishing software. Students may also have the option to create a video news release using Flip Cameras or applications like [|Animoto] (Knowledge Construction Mindtool).
 * 5) Exchange news releases with another group and read or view critically for data-collection design.
 * 6) Meet with this group to discuss your critique of its news release and its critique of your news release. As the authoring group, provide feedback.
 * 7) Be prepared to discuss or respond to the following:
 * What data-collection flaws were uncovered in the small groups?
 * Which parts of the news releases were problematic to readers?
 * Were these problems related to the writing style or data collection?
 * Should one be skeptical of all research? Why or why not?
 * 1) If possible, steps 5 through 7 above could be altered by making the "groups" different classes within the building or outside the building that would communicate using teleconferencing software such as //Elluminate Live!// (Conversation Mindtool).

Part Two: **//Probability vs. Odds//**

Review probability and make sure students have some ideas about how probability is used in daily life. [|Click here for a Math Forum] resource that could be a used as a jumping off point for that discussion. Allow students time to complete the [|Let's Make a Deal Webquest] as a part of their review. Similar activities can be found on [|SAS Curriculum Pathways] (Web Inquiry 124 and Classroom Activity 1055 Copyright © 2009, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA, All Rights Reserved SAS® Curriculum Pathways® ). [|Click here for an online simulator] for the SAS dice rolling activity (Dynamic Mindtool).

Media sources often use the terms //probability// and //odds// interchangably, but they are not the same. Even the odds of winning and losing are slightly different fractions and sometimes presented in confusing ways to entice betting. Introduce this lesson with a class discussion of the ratios below and, during the discussion, have the students make predictions of how the ratios are used to confuse consumers. Probability of winning= number of successes : total number of trials Probability of losing = number of failures : total number of trials Odds of winning = successes : failures Odds of losing = failures : successes

Have students watch the following video and react to the data presented as well as the use of the term "chance" (reactions could be in the form of blog entries): media type="youtube" key="rX4R7HkVzPs" height="344" width="425"

Have students expand on this by working with a partner to analyze the information contained on the [|North Carolina Education Lottery Homepage] and [|NCLOTTERY.COM]. Students should also react to the information contained on NCLOTTERY.COM site that explains how much money a lottery winner actually receives after they pay taxes on the winnings.

**Assessment**
Here are a some of rubrics that could be used in assessing the student work: (Based on teacher observation) (Could be used for students to evaluate each other) (Student self-evaluation rubric)